A new chapter is opening up in the commercial aviation industry, with demand and profitability returning to pre-pandemic levels of 2019, bringing a host of opportunities to the industry.
The faltering dominance of Boeing and Airbus is creating new opportunities in theaircraft manufacturing industry, AAM gets a boost from FAA approval, and MROs begin their Industrial AI journey.
Here are the three developments that will bring some serious market opportunities to the commercial aviation sector over the next year:
Prediction 1 – The industry duopoly of the $641.6 billion aircraft manufacturing industry wobble—creating gaps for new entrants in 2025
The duopoly that has ruled the aircraft manufacturing industry is failing to meet their own projection, never mind market demand. Following an incident with their 737 MAX 9 aircraft earlier this year, Boeing is facing many challenges including the Federal Aviation Administration Authority halting the production of the 737 MAX. As a result many commercial airlines moved to Airbus whose market share increased to 60.4% but they have their own supply chain issues for their A320 Family aircraft.
Many airlines are looking to increase their fleet sizes due to the rise in passenger demand as revenues rose by 15.2% from 2023 to 2024. However, due to the backlog in the supply of new aircraft, this has created a gap in the market for new airframes for manufacturing startups to capitalize on. The traditional airframe has not changed since Boeing’s 787 2009 and before that in 2004 with Airbus’s A350 as the duopoly has focused on new derivatives such as the 737-max and 777X. Before the duopoly started to crack this opportunity would previously have been difficult as the duopoly would either force or buy them out.
Time to capitalize and be inventive!
Boom Supersonic have wasted no time capitalizing with the development of their ‘Overture’ aircraft – designed to run fully sustainably and be twice as fast as current aircraft and have already received 130 preorders from a range of major airlines.
Manufacturers could differentiate themselves by using lightweight, durable composite materials—a proven strategy employed in Boeing’s 787 model. Given Boeing’s current challenges, this presents a prime opportunity for a startup to capitalize on this approach. JetZero has pioneered the Z5 blended-wing aircraft, engineered for full hydrogen power, while Natilus aims to achieve 50% greater efficiency with its designs. Meanwhile, Outbound Aerospace is leveraging 3D printing technology to accelerate the development of its aircraft.
Some startups such as Heart Aerospace with their hybrid-electric regional aircrafts, are designing new airframes from scratch. Others are focusing on developing hypersonic aircraft, take Hermeus for example with its reusable hypersonic aircraft, Halcyon, or Destinus that aims in 2026 to be testing its hypersonic hydrogen-fueled prototype.
To capitalize, startups will need an all-encompassing manufacturing ERP system, capable of supporting the prototyping, manufacturing, test flight operation, maintenance and engineering, supply chain, and aftermarket sales of their aircraft and ensure a successful development, entry-into-service, and sustainment now and in the future.
Prediction 2 – Across North America eVTOLs will enter into service in 2025 as first new FAA category for 80 years paves the way
The Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector will likely see its first aircraft into service in 2025, as Electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL) overcome their first entry-into-service hurdle. With the FAA revising its initial requirement that eVTOL pilots must hold a commercial pilot license before obtaining eVTOL certification, the pathway to certification has become more accessible.
For the first time since helicopters in the 1940s the FAA created a new civil aircraft category for Powered-Lift vehicles, adopting a Special Federal Aviation Regulation (SFAR) for a ten year period which covers pilot qualifications, training, and operational requirements for eVTOLs in the U.S. Good news for early industry leaders and IFS customer, Joby Aviation as they will be on track for entry-into-service for 2025 if pilots gain eVTOL certification.
To fully capitalize on a market expected to reach $38.24 by 2032 manufacturers need a supporting software system capable of managing their flight testing to record data and draw valuable insights for manufacturing and maintenance.
Prediction 3 – The MRO industry begins its Industrial AI journey as 20% implement AI in 2025
The Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) industry has faced many challenges over recent years. Now they’re being stretched further as demand for commercial air travel soars above pre-pandemic levels and airlines are being forced into extending the life of their older aircraft to match demand and cover reduced supply.
Under new guidance from the FAA MROs are beginning to adopt AI and digital tools. The guidance highlights how AI can be used in maintenance and states “An AI application can conduct a thorough comparison, considering multiple factors beyond predefined triggers, particularly when the system is allowed to learn over time.”
The implementation of AI in certain areas has begun among some MRO organizations. Take Jet Aviation for example, who are utilizing AI-enabled drones to carry out automated visual inspections to identify defects and generate a digital report.
Skilled labor and ageing workforce become challenges of previous years with AI
The MRO industry is amidst a labor shortage and it’s set to increase to a shortage of 43,000 aviation maintenance technicians by 2027 according to a recent Oliver Wyman report. To help tackle the labor shortage issue MRO organizations can implement Industrial AI in four areas:
- Increase legacy knowledge: Junior technicians can gain valuable knowledge from AI copilot suggesting solutions and diagnosing the correct IATA classification.
- Enhance junior technicians’ skillset: Junior technicians can gain virtual hands-on training with extended reality and call experienced technicians with augmented reality for guidance.
- Reduce non-productive time: AI-enabled maintenance planning can help maximize maintenance yield and improve scheduling for both resources and technicians.
- Optimize technicians’ efficiency: Aviation-specific AI devices can arm technicians with on-the-job solutions and troubleshooting.
SOURCE: Rob Mather.(2025 January 9).Three commercial aviation predictions as 2025 sets the new industry benchmark. IFS Blog. https://blog.ifs.com/2025/01/three-commercial-aviation-predictions-as-2025-sets-the-new-industry-benchmark
