Faced with rising cybersecurity threats and persistent supply chain shortages, airlines and regulators alike are demanding a new level of digital resilience. In 2026, success will hinge on closing critical security gaps and more outside the box digital thinking on supply chains to mitigate parts issues, including a promising outlook for 3D printing for on-demand parts.
A tightly stretched human workforce will get some relief as Agentic Industrial AI becomes digital co-pilots in maintenance hangars.
Meanwhile, reusable rockets opening the door for a new space aftermarket, expanding the very concept of MRO – The path to new markets means the sky isn’t the limit anymore!
Prediction 1: Cybersecurity grows in importance to defend globally critical infrastructure by closing the gap in the middle
The entire commercial aviation network is critical, high-value infrastructure that ensures the effective movement of people and goods around the world, think transportation of vaccines. The industry’s vulnerability to cyberattacks and their ability to cause widespread disruption has been underscored by recent examples. Thales figures found a 600% increase in ransomware attacks in the aviation sector between 2024-2025. Just look to the ransomware attack in September 2025 that crippled check-in systems across multiple major European hubs such as Brussels, London and Berlin as a perfect example of how a single vendor compromise can cascade into continental-scale disruption.
Any cybersecurity incidents that impact commercial aviation not only expose personal data and damage passenger trust, but they can also cripple the global supply chain.
At issue is the fact that aviation is still only partially digitally mature. While only partially true, older mainframe systems are often seen as impervious to cyberattack the better modern systems are built for security. The true vulnerability lies in the “middle section” where airline, aircraft, and ground systems have been partially modernized but are not fully up to date with modern cybersecurity practices.
In the year ahead, airlines and regulatory bodies, motivated by recent attacks and the essential role of aviation, and consequential potential targeting by state-sanctioned actors, will mandate a significant push for digital modernization across the entire industry. This will compel all major airlines and airports to implement up-to-date, modern cybersecurity practices for all operational systems, closing the “middle section” gap to counter potential threats.
This is where airline operators need seamless agility and resilience to stand a chance in the cybersecurity battle. Any software provider to airlines and MROs must constantly adopt a clear security posture, constantly addressing vulnerabilities with frequent updates using an evergreen approach and ideally, designing out vulnerabilities from the beginning.
Prediction 2: 3D printing provides becomes part of the answer to global supply chain constraints
Supply chain challenges for spare parts availability persist in commercial aviation driving it back up to the top of the list of issues facing the aviation maintenance industry and leading airlines and air operators to think outside the box and adopt innovative strategies to maintain operational readiness. One potential solution has been to use Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) parts, but some airlines face considerable hurdles here as lessors often refuse to allow OMA parts on their aircraft. Even if used as a stop-gap, airlines are forced to swap them out at time of lease return, meaning they are still subject to the main suppliers’ limitations. However, other parts supply solutions are on the horizon. There are promising signs ahead of ongoing efforts by FAA and EASA regulators to clarify how 3D printed parts can be used in certain applications. Additive manufacturing, combined with the digital thread, could help solve supply chain bottlenecks by allowing parts to be produced quickly and in proximity to where they are needed. In particular, this technology offers a solution for maintaining older aircraft more efficiently, as digital files for specific parts replace the need to store molds and retool assembly lines that may have been decommissioned years before.
Following a formal loosening of regulatory constraints, 3D-printed parts will become a mainstream, more accepted solution. The ability to rapidly produce both non-critical and older aircraft components will drastically streamline MRO processes and establish 3D printing as a driver of supply chain resilience in an industry that continues to feel the pain of supply chain issues. We are already seeing this shift with certified 3D-printed engine components and heat exchangers that handle super-complex geometries not achievable through traditional manufacturing, such as those on the GE Catalyst turboprop engine and the 3-D printed air-to-air heat exchanger flying on the Cessna Denali.
Prediction 3: Industrial AI and digital co-pilots in maintenance hangars will revolutionize maintenance troubleshooting
If there is one thing that rivals supply chain challenges for the top of the issues list in aviation maintenance, it is the skilled workforce shortage. And it’s abundantly clear that technician shortages will not be solved in the next 12 months. Despite technician certifications rising, The Pipeline Report from the U.S. Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC) and Oliver Wyman shows increasing demand and projected retirements are expected to leave commercial aviation with 10% fewer certified mechanics than needed in 2025.
So, the question becomes, how can we help the technicians we do have, do more? One answer is to digitally augment the maintenance technicians to improve overall efficiency. This is where applications of Agentic AI are stepping up to the plate. One of the most impactful applications of this AI will be the creation of a “troubleshooting agent” to support maintenance technicians. This generative AI co-pilot will be able to navigate the extraordinary complexity of maintenance documentation, such as Airworthiness Directives (ADs) and Service Bulletins (SBs). The ideal agent will be able help navigate complex reference documentation like AMMs, CMMs, troubleshooting manuals, or the IPC while pulling up pertinent SBs or ADs. The co-pilot could suggest it’s a potential recurring fault and surface which repairs failed to work previously. Such a co-pilot could in another scenario suggest the likely candidates for troubleshooting tasks including historic success rates and time to execute. It could even request the required parts automatically, so they are there waiting.
In the year ahead, expect troubleshooting agents to move out of the pilot phase and into deployment within the maintenance operations of airlines and MROs. These agents will serve as a digital co-pilot that enhances the productivity of the existing, experienced workforce, while also helping close the knowledge gap for newer technicians.
Prediction 4: The dawn of the space aftermarket!
Looking further skyward, an aftermarket opportunity is emerging that goes beyond Earth’s stratosphere. The new aftermarket is being driven by a proliferation of satellites that have been deployed for communication, observation and scientific purposes, combined with the rise of reusable vertical-landing rockets such as the SpaceX Falcon 9 and the newly developing Starship. Commercial space tourism is now adding a third catalyst, with reusable spaceflight vehicles that must be maintained to rigorous safety and compliance standards between flights. Together, these shifts are creating an entirely new MRO market for launch platforms themselves, which now require a formal sustainment process rather than simple disposal after a single use.
These launch vehicles are increasingly designed for reusability, which means they now require a formal sustainment process rather than simple disposal after a single use. This creates a new MRO market for launch platforms themselves.
For the most part, orbital vehicles have been treated as disposable assets with a finite operational life. Bringing spacecraft back down to Earth has not been feasible, and sending repair systems up has been equally impractical. The advent of self-healing materials is beginning to shift this paradigm by enabling spacecraft to autonomously repair micro-cracks and structural degradation in orbit, as demonstrated in recent aerospace research on self-healing composites. At the same time, dramatically lower launch costs mean that on-orbit servicing and repair are becoming feasible for the first time.
Launch and space-platform MRO is rapidly emerging as the next frontier. Blue Origin’s multi-use Blue Ring platform illustrates how reusable vehicles will create entirely new sustainment markets. In parallel, NASA’s On-Orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing (ISAM) framework highlights how satellites and launch systems will require formal sustainment infrastructures rather than being treated as disposable.
Research shows the Space Logistics Market Size will grow to $19.8 billion by 2040, with large growth driven by on-orbit servicing, assembly and manufacturing, as well as last-mile logistics. The ripple effect over the coming years is that these once disposable space assets will require sustainment and support strategies to maximize availability, efficiency, and further reduce the costs of space operations. This means maintenance needs to be built into the asset management lifecycle. No matter the form the servicing takes, this shift means that new systems will need to be implemented to manage the ongoing lifecycle management of these assets not previously required. Manufacturers must make sure vehicles are ready not just for use, but for re-use and critically, are 100% operational when they are required.
The modernization mandate to chart a course for commercial aviation success
The outlook for commercial aviation in 2026 is clear: digital resilience isn’t a buzzword, it’s a key path forward. Facing critical cybersecurity threats and persistent supply chain bottlenecks, the industry is accelerating its digitalization out of necessity, not choice. Securing a vulnerable digital infrastructure is essential for out of the box approaches to parts shortages such as 3D printing to reach their full potential, giving airlines the agile power to create parts on demand.
SOURCE: Rob Mather (2025 December 16) Reaching for the Sky and Beyond: The New Digital Mandate for Commercial Aerospace in 2026. IFS Blog. https://blog.ifs.com/reaching-for-the-sky-and-beyond-the-new-digital-mandate-for-commercial-aerospace-in-2026/
